5 important strategies and 1 helpful spreadsheet to increase your odds of winning
Florida Lottery instant games offer some of the best payouts among all lottery games in the United States. Payouts range from 58% to almost 77% of sales, and the average game pays out 70%. Top prizes reach $10 million.
You can choose among more than 70 scratch-off games, with ticket prices starting at $1 and rising to $30.
While the Florida Lottery draw games are based entirely on luck and chance – with virtually nothing you can do to improve your odds of winning other than buying more tickets – FLA Lottery scratch-off games are different.
Scratch-off tickets of any kind are not random.
To repeat. Florida Lottery drawings are a game of chance because the numbers are drawn randomly – without any human intervention. Scratch-off tickets are not random because a real person must determine how many total tickets to print, how many will be winning tickets and for what amounts, and how the winning tickets are dispersed geographically. All of these decisions are carefully crafted to maximize excitement and to draw players in and keep them playing.
Even the number of winning tickets in a roll is often pre-determined to avoid long losing streaks.
The scratch-off tickets themselves are anything but random.
A conscious effort is made to produce “almost win” tickets where, for example, a card will have three out of four of the matching symbols needed, which will encourage players to purchase another card or come back sooner to play again.
In short, there is a formula to scratch-off games. The challenge is to figure it out.
A story in Wired Magazine explains how a geological statistician living in Toronto, Mohan Srivastava, discovered a pattern to how the tickets were printed.
“The tickets are clearly mass-produced, which means there must be some computer program that lays down the numbers,” Mr. Srivastava is quoted in Wired. “Of course, it would be really nice if the computer could just spit out random digits. But that’s not possible, since the lottery corporation needs to control the number of winning tickets [otherwise it could go bust]. The game can’t be truly random. Instead, it has to generate the illusion of randomness while actually being carefully determined.”
The article goes on to describe his approach. Although his particular method will no longer work on most (probably all) scratch-off tickets, the principle of “illusion of randomness” does still apply.
Instant lottery scratch-off games best strategies
We can’t tell you the exact formula for your favorite scratch-off games, but we can offer strategies for dramatically improving your odds for winning money when playing instant cash games.
If you really want to win more when playing instant lottery scratch-off games, start doing the following:
1. Buy all your instant game tickets from the same roll at the same time.
You can assume there are at least a few winners in every roll of tickets. Every time you get a losing ticket, you reduce your chances of losing by one ticket.
Do not buy different games. If you buy a new ticket from a different roll, the pool of losing tickets is much larger and your chances of getting a winning ticket goes down.
2. Don’t play everyday. Rather buy in bulk.
Building on tip #1, the odds are better if instead of buying one ticket every day for a week, you spend the same amount and buy 7 tickets at one time. Better yet, purchase your monthly allotment of scratch offs during on visit. Buying 30 tickets at once is much better than buying one a day.
3. Let others buy the losing tickets.
If you’re able to and have the time, hang around and watch others play. If you see a prolonged losing streak from a specific roll, your chances of getting a winning ticket increase because scratch-off tickets are sold with a guaranteed number of winners and losers in each pack.
You could also make friends with the cashier who could keep track for you.
4. Have the retailer’s computer check your losing tickets.
This isn’t about improving your odds necessarily, except that after scratching off 10, 15, or 20 tickets, it’s easy to miss matching symbols or numbers.
5. Strategically plan your play using math and a spreadsheet
Most scratch-off games publish on their websites the odds for each instant cash game. Many will often post prizes that have already been won for each game.
If you do nothing else, at least be sure to check the appropriate website to see which games still have top prizes available.
Now to really improve your odds, let’s do a little math (there’s a spreadsheet at the end to make it easy).
We start with a simple concept: When tickets are sold and prizes won, the odds of winning change.
For example, if a game has sold many tickets, all or nearly all the top prizes could have already been won, so the odds of you winning that $1 million went from very small to virtually zero to perhaps zero if all the top prizes have been claimed.
However, sometimes the odds swing in your favor.
Again, simplifying the math for the example, let’s say 50% of the tickets have been sold but only 25% of the prizes have been claimed. Naturally, your odds of winning have gone up, or swung in your favor, by 50%. This would be a game you should play.
In reality, the odds never swing this much. In fact, most of the time, the odds vary only slightly. But a slight move in your direction can help and a few times, you’ll find significant swings that can make a worthwhile difference.
We’ve created a spreadsheet you can use to do the math for you. All you need to do is check the game’s website and fill in the numbers.
Here’s how the spreadsheet works for a single game:
We used the $10,000,000 Florida Cash game (#1265) as an example.
You can find the numbers for the game here: http://www.flalottery.com/scratch-offsGameDetails?gameNumber=1265
In column A, we filled in the available prizes.
In column B, we filled in the odds, which are usually stated as “1 in X.” In our Florida Lottery example, the odds of winning $500 are 1 in 333.33. Put 333.33 in column B.
In column C, we filled in total available prizes. The $10,000,000 Florida Cash game is giving away 4 $10 million prizes and 46 $1 million prizes.
Column D automatically calculates the estimated number of tickets sold based on the odds and available prizes. The formula is:
Odds X Available Prizes = Printed Tickets
Florida Lottery example for $1 million: 704,347.83 (odds) X 46 (available prizes) = 32,400,00 (printed tickets)
You can run the same example for the $10 million prizes and get the same result of 32,400,000 tickets printed.
Since the number of printed tickets match, that number fills in for the rest of the column.
In fact, we can use this number to determine how many other prizes are available.
Column E automatically calculates your chances of winning. Your chances of winning $1 million is .00014%. Your chances of winning $25 is 15%.
FYI: This game offers much better odds than similar scratch-off games in other states.
In column F, we filled in the claimed prizes as published on the website.
Column G automatically calculates the number of remaining prizes.
Column H is an important column. It estimates how many tickets have been sold. This is a number not provided by the website, but it’s critical in determining how the odds have changed.
Unfortunately, the Florida Lottery only publishes remaining prizes for the highest amounts. So we can’t do too much more with the other prizes. And it renders a good portion of the spreadsheet unhelpful.
If you could find out the remaining prizes for the other amounts, here’s how the rest of the spreadsheet would work:
To generate a reasonable estimate, the spreadsheet uses the estimated tickets sold of the lowest prize amount because this gives us the largest sample size and will be more accurate than the numbers with fewer prizes.
Column I automatically takes the estimated tickets sold and subtracts from total tickets printed to get the estimated remaining tickets.
Column J automatically adjusts the odds based on the new numbers.
Column K automatically adjusts your chances of winning based on the new numbers.
Column L automatically determines how much your chances of winning have changed. Sometimes in your favor, represented by a green bold number, and sometimes against you, represented by a red number.
You can use the spreadsheet to play other scratch-off games in other states that are more generous with their numbers.
For the Florida Lottery $10,000,000 Florida Cash Game, we know that the top prize of $10 million has seen a disproportionately high number of winners. 50% of the top prizes are gone. But only 32% of the $1 million prizes have been won.
Bottom line, don’t just walk into a store and purchase a few random tickets, unless you really don’t care and just want to have fun. But if you want to improve your odds, these strategies do help.
Download instant lottery scratch-off games spreadsheet
To download the spreadsheet to your computer, click the menu File, then Download As.
Note, this is a Google Doc so you won’t risk getting viruses or other crap you get if you download strange files or those ending in .exe.
Let me know what you think below.